In this piece by JESUSEGUN ALAGBE, political pundits weigh the influence of the federal might in the upcoming Ekiti governorship elections as some key actors in President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration join the race
For some reasons, all eyes are beyond doubt on Ekiti State, where the governorship election will take place on July 14, 2018, according to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission on October 5, 2017.
The incumbent governor and the only one from the Peoples Democratic Party in the South-West, Mr. Ayodele Fayose, has been highly vocal and critical of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration of the All Progressives Congress. In fact, Fayose could perhaps be described as the President’s number one critic.
According to pundits, Fayose has established himself as a major force to reckon with in the Ekiti political terrain, especially after his second return to the governorship seat on October 16, 2014.
His first stint in government started on May 29, 2003, after defeating the then-incumbent governor, Niyi Adebayo, in the governorship election. He could not, however, complete his first tenure as a result of an impeachment filed against him on October 16, 2006.
But as he leaves his position on October 15, 2018, several Nigerians both from within and outside the state look forward to who replaces him, particularly as he is seriously backing his deputy, Prof. Kolapo Olusola, to replace him.
“I believe the primaries should be open, even though it will definitely be a tense period; people all over the country are looking forward to it,” the Deputy British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Ms Laure Beaufils, said on April 11, 2018, when she paid a courtesy visit to the management of a private radio station, Voice 89.9 FM.
“Politicians should dwell on issues, policies, and manifestos rather than on personalities. The coming Ekiti election is a signal to the 2019 general elections.”
In the meantime, just as Fayose wants a win for the Peoples Democratic Party, the APC is also keen on taking over the governorship seat of Ekiti State, the only state in the South-West that is still in control by the opposition.
“These elections [in Ekiti and Osun] are precursors of the national elections. It is, therefore, necessary that we treat them with great seriousness because they are elections we should do everything to win,” the APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, stated on February 28, 2018.
By the way, analysts said that a pointer to the fact that the APC “desperately” wanted a win in the July election was the entry into the governorship race by some of President Buhari’s men, namely the Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Mr. Kayode Fayemi; the Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Senator Babafemi Ojudu; and the Deputy National Chairman of the APC in the South, Chief Segun Oni.
However, the pundits believed that despite the parade of Buhari’s men as aspirants for the election, their relationships with the President would have little or no influence on the outcome of the election.
A political scientist at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago Iwoye, Ogun State, Dr. Sunday Abang, didn’t think President Buhari could influence the political goodwill of his men contesting in the Ekiti State governorship election.
He stated that the reason for this was because times were changing and Nigerians were no longer docile. He added that it seemed Nigerians had begun to look beyond the concept of “anointed candidates” in the country’s political space.
He said, “The manner in which the Ekiti State governorship election will hold is definitely being watched. You know the governor there is from the PDP and don’t forget all the political wrangles between it (PDP) and the APC-led Federal Government. Fayose is a political giant in the state.
“I think Nigerians are no longer docile as before. The way the Ekiti indigenes have assessed the Buhari’s administration is likely to be the same way they will view his party’s candidates. What have they seen about President Buhari’s government? Of course, it is not advisable to choose party over personality when it comes to elections. However, there is still that sentiment.
“I don’t think the Ekiti electorate will be cowed by the influence from the centre except if we have a situation whereby the electorate’s will is muscled, which we don’t want to witness again.”
Abang advised the Ekiti voters to look for a candidate with leadership skill and one who could provide the dividends of democracy.
He said, “My advice to the electorate is to ask themselves: ‘Who is good?’ ‘Who can deliver the dividends of democracy to us?’ ‘Who can provide real leadership for us?’ They should be wise; they should have expectations and elect a viable governor, whichever party they might come from.”
The National Chairman of the All Grassroots Alliance, Dr. Olukayode Oshiariyo, said the central government’s influence wouldn’t count for the APC aspirants in the Ekiti State governorship election.
He said the citizens’ eyes had opened after the 2015 general elections, as many had yet to reap the dividends of “change” that the Buhari administration promised.
He said, “Buhari has not identified with the grass roots in the country. The only way central influence could have worked was if there had been positive indices courtesy of the works the Buhari government has done. But there is none.
“Instead of prosperity, the citizens are getting poverty; more people are getting poorer each day. Nothing is happening despite all the noise about the anti-corruption war. Some reputable international agencies had come up with damning reports about the Buhari administration.
“Hence, I don’t expect Buhari’s influence to be so weighty as to influence the Ekiti indigenes’ choice of a governor in July. The eyes of the people have opened.”
In the meantime, some political analysts have stated that a request by some traditional rulers in Ekiti State might shape the election’s outcome.
The traditional rulers had on Saturday demanded that political parties in the state must ensure that they field a candidate from Ekiti South for the July 14 governorship election.
They advised political parties to ensure they produce a candidate from the south in their primaries ahead of the main election in order to get their full support.
In a statement by Fayose’s Chief Press Secretary, Mr. Idowu Adelusi, the monarchs were said to have admonished political parties to take their demands seriously and that they would mobilise their people to vote against any political party that failed to field a southern candidate for the July 14 election.
The Elemure of Emure Ekiti, Oba Emmanuel Adebayo, who spoke on behalf of the monarchs, said they had resolved that all political parties must field a candidate from Ekiti South in their collective interest.
“We should have a candidate who should emerge from the south irrespective of the political party. That will show fairness. Where a particular area is not considered in the scheme of things, that will amount to marginalisation,” he said.
A political commentator from Ado-Ekiti, Dr. Femi Babatunde, said the incumbent governor might have imagined this scenario when he chose to support his deputy, who is from the southern part of the state.
“Winning in an election is a game and it takes good analysis to get it. I think Fayose was calculative when he threw his weight behind Prof. Olusola all along,” Babatunde said.
“The professor is from Ikere-Ekiti, a southern part of the state. All the Buhari’s men, Fayose, Ojudu and Oni, are all from the north. So technically, the traditional rulers are saying, ‘look, this is the guy we want.’ It’s not a guarantee of winning the election, though, but it’s a pointer to the future.”
Speaking to Saturday PUNCH on the telephone, a public affairs analyst from Ibadan, Mr. Anwo Edward, also agreed with the other commentators, saying that the “Buhari magic” wouldn’t work much for his men contesting the July 14 governorship election.
He echoed Abang’s opinion, saying that “since 2015 when the Buhari administration started, you could see that politics in Nigeria was no longer as usual.”
He said, “Nigerians are getting wiser and wiser; it’s not politics as usual. I think gone are the days when the citizens would vote for a candidate because of federal influence. God forbid that there is federal oppression; the people are getting more politically conscious.
“You can’t bamboozle them with statements such as, ‘It will be good if you elect a governor from a party the President is from.’ Though we are still young in democracy, things are shaping up a bit.
“In fact, I see Buhari’s posture as working against his men. People will wonder, ‘The President has not provided jobs for us, how are we sure his men will do?’ ‘Someone who has not provided enough security for Nigerians, how are we sure his men will give us one?’ You should realise that Buhari’s political goodwill has diminished since 2015.”
Meanwhile, a Lagos-based security analyst and Information Technology expert, Dr. Simon Olorunfemi, has warned against the use of violence in the July 14 governorship election in the state.
He said it was high time the politicians and the electorate learnt to abide by the rules of democracy in elections.
He said, “Nigeria is no longer a child when it comes to democracy. We are now 19 years old. We can’t say we are still children. Nowadays, an average 19-year-old person would have graduated from the tertiary institution.
“My point is that there should be nothing like federal influence or power in elections anymore. Let the people choose whoever they want and let all parties respect the people’s choice. Nigeria should by now be teaching other African countries how elections should be run.
“President Buhari shouldn’t want to prove a point and muscle the will of the people to vote. Likewise, the incumbent governor shouldn’t say he is a sort of force in the state and subjugate the people.”
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